Race 1 : Fidelis & Young Royal stand both a good chance. Joey's Legacy has worked well.
Race 2 : Open Race (Mount Hillaby, Papa Joe, Captain's Bounty & Act of Valor). Race 3 : Canadian Dollar remains the one to beat. Lion's Print & Hancock's Dynasty have showed good signs of progress. Race 4 : Gharbee should score another one. Silver Dice has showed progress as well as Pont D'avignon. Race 5 : Open race (Roman Manner, One Cool Dude, Azapel & Liquid Motion). Race 6 : Another open race (Nordic Warrior, Everest, Hiilbrow, Reim, Kremlin Captain). Race 7 : Blow Me Away is better than last time and should enjoy a better trip. Valerin has one more run, should be there also. Race 8 : Newcomer Lecture D seems the best option. Ocean Hunter has worked well. Right to Tango should be in the finish also.
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With the new handicap weight formula for some races, it will turn out to be a windfall for high rated horses. A explanation is given here.
In fact, in the latest Derby trial (4 yrs Open G.3) ran on Saturday 21st May, winner M L Jet drew a clear advantage of it. On a normal handicap basis, Night In Seatle should have a handicap of 54,5 kg but instead carried a weight of 58 kg. Though a 3,5 kg disadvantage, he managed to finish 0,45 L behind. The same for Gameloft who overcame it's 6 kg deficit by finishing 1,7 L behind the winner. For that race, compressed handicap index was (Rt 66 - 26)/ 9 kg = 4.444. So, higher is that index, higher will be the deficit for low rated horses in terms of handicap. An unsual but consistent initial part of the season for trainer R.GUJADHUR which has up to now the biggest overall percentage wins (25%) and almost half of its fleet of horses have won a race. Seven Fountains & Captain Magpie were up to expectations. M L Jet benefitted from a clever ride in front with a slow pace. Tornado Man unlucky but ran as expected.
Here is the predicted early pace map for Race 7 given it is a very open race.
Race tempo is forecast fast. Horses which will settle quicky will certainly have the edge. Race 1 : Odds on Wing Man & Dunraven are justifed. Roving Consort stands a good chance also.
Race 2 : Jay Jay's Wild & Seven Fountains have the best options. Parado & Rebel's Game had little preparation for that trip. Race 3 : Evergreen & Hancock's Dynasty should perform well. Decent chance for Kingdom's Key. Race 4 : Battle between Captain Magpie, Scorecard & Max Rapax. Race 5 : Scotsnog is the horse to beat. Hot Rocket & Captain Firth should be there also. Race 6 : Night In Seatle should be able to score his 2nd win. Decent chance for Gameloft also if in a good mood. Race 7 : Open race > Kurundu is still immature and difficult to seatle though he is the one to beat. Tornado Man is a changed horse this year. Shield Of Thunder should do well. Big run expected from League Of Legends this time. Catwalk Model has worked well also. Canadian Dollar has had little preparation. Race 8 : Battle between Tobeastar, Social Network & Van Der Scaler. Exceptional overall performance from Ryder Cup (Y.Emamdee) and its 12th win in Mauritius. He now competes brillantly for his 4th straight season coming from a very modest rating band. Again a remarkable work from his trainer who has been able to maintain its top form since it has changed stable.
Donnie Brasco (N.Callow) performed well also as expected but had a less easy trip. Great performance from both Rousset Stable newcomers. They run a cracker and were up to expectations. More to come from them.
Race 1 : Battle between Young Royal, Gris Cheval & Albert's Day.
Race 2 : Triad Of Fortune remains the horse to beat. Cula has worked well. Race 3 : Liam & Strum have both worked well. Argun should be there also if not in the winner's enclosure. Race 4 : Ready For Take Off seems the best in this field. First Flight can strike though he has not run for more than 1 year. Craftsman lacks preparation. Race 5 : Battle between Cherish The Charm, Mr Leyend & Castle. Race 6 : Odds on Ryder Cup & Donnie Brasco are justified. A chance for newcomer Allenby Park who will relish age & rating allowance advantage. Race 7 : Open Race ( Yoda Man, Roman Express, Power Dive, It's My Party). Race 8 : Battle between Data Controller, Kentucky Bluegrass & Port Albert. Captain Matthew not in this field. Si Race 1 : Odds on Melson are justified. Draw 1 may not be an advantage though because he normally follows off pace.
Race 2 : Battle between Adi Star, Don't Tell Mamma & Mount Hillaby. Race 3 : Valerin and Gharbee must show again their worth. Racing For Fun & Blaze Of Noon should do well. Race 5 : Karraar seems ready for his 1st win in Mauritius. Domani has worked well. Shield Of Thunder must overcome draw. Race 6 : Battle between Recall To Life, Roman Manner & Skippyjon Jones. Race 7 : Constellation - now or never again !!, Starspangledbanner would have his say in this field. Brazo has worked well but can be beaten. Race paces were generally decent, except for races 4, 5 & 6 initially.
Add. notes : A great performance from Night In Seattle was followed Off pace. He closed in magnificiently though initial pace was not 'On'. Chinese Gold was helped by Kimberly Al early move. Hillbrow enjoyed his favorite On pace running style. |
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