Race 2 : Odds on Seven Fountains are justified but it can be beaten.
Race 3 : Odds on Independence based on little if not the "Captain Magpie effect last week". No first run disadvantage on this distance. Odds on New Star are justified. Race 4 : Odds on Chinese Gold are justified. Lucky Valentine should repeat last time performance. Kimberly Al is better this time & will be closer on finish. Race 5 : Hillbrow has not deceived till now. Sole Mio is well prepared. Kruger Rand has been maintained fresh. Race 6 : See below Race 7 : Freedom has good race form. League of Legends is still a maiden. Amber Palace has worked well Race 8 : Battle between Put Foot Singe, Ek Tha Tiger & Mr Oshkosh
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The first listed race of the season. Here are some interesting points for this legendary race.
Breeding wise : Captain Al products have performed v. well at their first run and in group races, giving a good indication of adaptability to local conditions and climate. Horse Chestnut is new but his second bloodline sire "Fort Wood" is well known to the Champ de Mars racecourse, namely with Mr. Brock. Conformation is key to success. Rating & tactics wise : In the last 3 years, high rated horses have won coming from behind and race tempos were fast... showing that batch of imported horses has considerably improved. Hopefully it may be the same this year. Trainer wise : Top trainers A. Perdrau & G. Rousset have nothing to prove for their notorious experience for listed races and new acquisitions. R. Gujadhur has also had some good new horses lately. Our selections : ALPHA PEGASI & BOLD INSPIRATION. SCOTSNOG has not run since 10 months and may need a race or two to gain some form. NIGHT IN SEATLE has not run also since 10 months but well prepared. CHOSEN DASH is well prepared but may lack maturity in that field. ASSEGAI : Breeding wise it has not shown much yet. Race paces were generally slow except for R 6 & 7.
P.s : Again an exceptional ride from N. Callow on Triad of Fortune. He proved once again an acute sense of judgement and experience. He won this time with a self-imposed change of tactics because of lack of initial pace. Well done. Perfect trip for Nordic Warrior and top Pedrau Stable. This great horse comes from a modest rating and has been able to improve throughout till competing with elite horses.
Race 2 : Triad Of Fortune lacks track work but has good race form. This may be sufficient in this rating band. Billy Bojangles will have his say - odds are fair.
Race 3 : Odds on Gharbee are justified. Only trap is lack of pace. Cinchona last run to be ignored. Not a versatile horse with change of tactics. Is well prepared this time. Odds on Spin A Coin are interesting because he will probably control the pace, though difficult type before start. Race 4 : Open race. Nothing Compares can be beaten on v.soft track work. Race 5 : Grey's Inn Control shows good consistency. Odds are justified. Race 6 : Open race. Race 7 : Odds on The Real Hero are justified. Race 8 : Battle between Canadian Dollar, Roving Consort and Data Controller. Pace forcecast slow with only one front runner. Gharbee will have to challenge early if he wants to maintain all his chances. Pace is forcecast fast with two front runners and good finishers. Interesting race.
Though v. soft going (3.0 to 2.9) race paces were decent.
Note : A clever ride from M. Neisius on Tembot who never put pressure initially on his mount which could have cost him the race. Great ride from N. Callow bringing Reim home. Despite appearances on video, sectional time shows perfect judgment on initial pace without forcing its strides compared to his last run. He was kept fresh this time and paid off.
Race 2 : Odds on K. Advisor and Melson are justified
Race 3 : Odds on Act of Valor are perhaps too high given the string of 1 km specialists in that filed. The market has favored draw biais as it normally occurs in that particular type of race. Race 4 : Odds on Valerin are justified. Too much expectations perhaps for Parado with little preparation. Phiri E Kwatile odds are fair. Blow Me Away has yet to overcome first run. Gida...the 'Callow effect' only. Race 5 : Little preparation for Cherish the Charm. Should benefit from race. Odds on Scorecard, Mr Leyend & B. Caballero are ok. Unusual move from A. Perdrau to have Trackmaster first run on 1500 m rather on a sprint race. It's a good hint that expectations may be high on that one. Good track work. Race 6 : Less prepartion for Everest this time & odds 'pumped by No first win yet for David' effect. 1st run advantage though. Reim has had v. soft track work this time - odds are decent for jockeyship. Race 7 : Decents odds should vary for Roventas, Evergreen & Karraar chances. Here are our selections for this race meeting. R 2 : Kings Advisor, Melson R 5 : Scorecard, Trackmaster R 6 : Rear Admiral, Tandragee Add. notes : Going @ 11.00 am : 3.0 to 3.1 M forecast for last races. Normally, Breeding factor should hint at those who will relish or be affected by these track conditions. Individual past performances are not necessarily a good indication because it depends also on the form and preparation on that particular race day.
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